Butadiene market will still be in short supply in

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In 2012, the butadiene market will still be in short supply

the international and domestic economic situation is weak, and the end-user demand is sluggish, making the butadiene market as a whole show a trend of high before and low after in 2011. In 2012, benefiting from the tight supply side and the production of downstream synthetic rubber plants and other favorable factors, butadiene may get out of the high-level shock trend

in 2011, the butadiene market was full of twists and turns. From 16000 yuan at the beginning of the year (ton price, the same below), it rose madly to 30000 yuan from July to August, and then fell to 13500 yuan. At the end of the year, when the chemical market was in decline, butadiene suddenly rose and ended up with a perfect ending with an upturned market, reaching the 20000 yuan mark again. Looking at the trend of butadiene in 2011, market demand and economic environment have become the main forces affecting the domestic market

there are two main reasons for the rise in butadiene prices in the first half of 2011: first, in March, the Japanese earthquake shut down many ethylene production units, resulting in tight supply in the Asian butadiene market, leading to an increase in domestic prices; Second, it coincides with the booming market of automobiles and so on, and the demand for synthetic rubber has increased greatly, making the consumption of raw material butadiene rise synchronously. However, after July, the market became more worried about the European and American economies, and the DMC price was now reported to be about 8500 yuan/ton. The price of bulk petrochemical raw materials such as international crude oil fell sharply. Especially after the deposit reserve ratio was increased for the sixth time in June, the effect of monetary tightening policy appeared. In addition, due to the high price of butane, it was difficult to transfer costs downstream, and small and medium-sized downstream producers were short of funds, so they took measures to reduce production load or stop, The purchase of butadiene decreased. At the same time, more than 60% of butadiene enters the terminal tire and automobile market through the downstream synthetic rubber field. The third quarter has always been the off-season of tire production, and the arrival of the off-season will inevitably affect the demand for butadiene. Under the pressure, the market price of butadiene fell. The tail raising market at the end of the year is not only a retaliatory rebound after the product value is underestimated, but also a strong support for domestic enterprises to implement the sales strategy of limited supply. At present, there is still room for domestic market prices to rise

in 2012, there are three main factors affecting the butadiene Market: supply side, demand side and economic situation

during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, it is expected that China's butadiene consumption will increase at an average annual double-digit rate, while the compound growth rate of butadiene capacity expansion is less than 8%, and the speed of capacity deployment is lower than the demand growth. At present, butadiene produced by PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC is mainly self supplied. Qixiang Tengda 100000 tons/year butadiene was completed and put into operation this year, which is far from meeting the demand growth. In the absence of other new production capacity, even for the same product, the tight market supply of butadiene in China will not change in 2012. The main application fields of butadiene in China are butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, ABS, SBS and nitrile rubber. In the past 10 years, the production capacity and output of butadiene have increased rapidly, but at present, the supply still exceeds the demand

the downstream demand for butadiene will increase in 2012. At present, all regions have launched synthetic rubber projects. In 2011, about 520000 tons of new synthetic rubber production capacity was put into operation in China, and 770000 tons of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber production capacity will be added in China this year and next year. At present, there are projects under construction such as Fuxiang chemical 100000 tons/year styrene butadiene rubber and qixiangteng 50000 tons/year rare earth cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, which are expected to reach production this year. The total capacity of synthetic rubber under construction in China has exceeded 2.4 million tons, which will increase the demand for Butadiene by more than 1.4 million tons, which is good for the raw butadiene market

at the same time, the external supply of butadiene is tightening. With the lightening of domestic raw materials, the United States will increase its dependence on butadiene imports year by year; Due to the impact of cheap products from the Middle East, the European petrochemical industry was forced to shut down its own ethylene plants, and the local ethylene production fell sharply, from the peak annual output of 24million tons to the current 18million tons, with the annual output of butadiene declining year-on-year; Japanese Asahi Kasei and other enterprises have SBR project construction plans

it is expected that in the next few years, the production capacity of butadiene will increase at an average annual rate of less than 3%, while the growth rate of global butadiene consumption will far exceed 3%, and the demand growth will also be faster than the capacity expansion. There will still be a gap between the supply and demand of butadiene, and the shortage of supply will be a normalization trend in the future. The tightening of the external butadiene supply is a foregone conclusion, which will push up the butadiene market in China

however, the economic situation in 2012 is not optimistic: first, affected by the European debt crisis, the main economic indicators of the euro area showed a significant downward trend at the end of 2011, and the desire to make cars more fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly is now evident. The decline in exports, shrinking output value, a sharp reduction in corporate orders, and the decline in social consumption Retail sales will continue to ferment. The global economic situation in 2012 will remain pessimistic; Second, market confidence has fallen sharply, and the driving force of economic growth is still insufficient; Third, 2012 is a global election year. Coupled with the Iran issue and the change of leaders in North Korea, the trend of the economy and international crude oil prices has become more and more confusing

the latest "2012 China's macroeconomic and financial outlook" released by the financial research center of the Bank of communications predicts that the pull rod spacing is 2600mm × 2450mm, the actual growth rate of China's GDP will remain at about 8.5% in 2012. China's economic operation may face risks such as rapid contraction of external demand, sharp fluctuations in short-term capital flows, partial bursting of the real estate price foam and partial default of local financing platforms. At the same time, the rising cost of resources and labor has raised the cost of economic growth, and the slowdown in exports has put some pressure on industrial production. These factors will be a stumbling block to the prosperity of the bulk chemical products market, and will also become a negative factor in the butadiene market

therefore, it is unlikely that the domestic butadiene market will see another soaring price in 2012, or it will fluctuate at a high level

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