Has China's photovoltaic industry overcome the difficulties
the photovoltaic "531" new deal, which is regarded as the third industry crisis in the industry, has been implemented for half a year. When the new deal was first introduced, the industry was in an uproar, financial institutions were worried, and the share prices of listed companies were covered with dark clouds. But six months later, the situation of the photovoltaic industry was "not as bad as expected". In the words of a photovoltaic entrepreneur, "it's not as nourishing as (before), but it's still healthy."
next year, there will be a new annual subsidy index, the industry's long-awaited renewable energy power quota system will be officially implemented, and industry confidence is returning
in the half year after "531": the photovoltaic industry is "not as bad as expected"
on May 31 this year, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the notice on matters related to photovoltaic power generation in 2018, which clearly pointed out that the construction scale of ordinary photovoltaic power stations in 2018 would not be arranged for the time being, only the construction scale of distributed photovoltaic power plants of about 10million kW would be arranged, and the electricity price on photovoltaic benchmark would be further reduced, Reduce the intensity of subsidies
"531 New Deal" has been described by industry insiders as "braking on the highway", "cliff type" subsidy decline, etc., and it has been compared with the economic crisis in 2008 and the two industrial "crises" in Europe and the United States in 2012-2013
"at that time, people thought they were going to 'die'." At the 2018 China photovoltaic industry annual conference and smart energy innovation forum held recently, a photovoltaic entrepreneur recalled to China finance and economics and other media
facts have proved that after the baptism and tempering of the previous two "crises", Chinese photovoltaic enterprises have become more mature in business management and financial operation, and have been more calm in responding to policy changes. Many enterprises have adjusted their business strategies in time, such as strengthening the expansion of overseas markets, mainly promoting self use projects, and introducing the leasing mode in household projects
gaojifan, chairman of Trinasolar, said in the above forum that after every major challenge, there is a new development. The "531" new deal does bring great challenges and pressure to the industry, but in the medium and long term, it will not affect the development of photovoltaic, an industry that responds to global climate changes and has a driving force for energy transformation. He called on financial institutions to regain confidence in the photovoltaic industry
Zhang Guangchun, COO of atlas, said that both at home and abroad, the photovoltaic industry is an industry greatly affected by policies, which will be hot and cold with policy changes. However, as an enterprise itself, it should "practice its internal skills" and adhere to improving its technical level
Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji, said that the pace of production expansion of photovoltaic enterprises should grasp the node of their own technological progress, and achieve "no production expansion without taking the lead", so as to reduce risks and achieve steady development
"after '531', the industry has indeed been greatly affected, but it is much better than expected. It is not so moist (before), but it is still relatively healthy." Caorenxian, chairman of sunshine power, told China finance and economics and other media
in the above forum, Wang Bohua, vice president and Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that about 36gw of new domestic installed capacity was added in August. For the annual volume, industry insiders predict that it may be close to 40gw, which is much better than the "within 30GW" expected by the industry when the "531" was just introduced
"on the whole, I got through this difficulty." Cao Renxian said
the implementation of the quota system is about to return industry confidence
a series of supporting policies will be issued
on November 15, the comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration issued a letter soliciting opinions on the implementation of the renewable energy power quota system (hereinafter referred to as the "notice"). Previously, the comprehensive Department of the national energy administration and the general office of the national development and Reform Commission had solicited opinions on the renewable energy power quota and assessment measures twice in March 2018 and September 2018
compared with the second edition, the third edition of the exposure draft has increased incentive indicators; The general equivalents, the overfulfilled amount of direct trading quotas, the intermediate conversion process and the difficulty of implementation are eliminated
in the third edition, the "payment of compensation" is also changed to be included in the bad credit record of the main body of the power market and given joint punishment. "Changing the payment of compensation into the credit system does not mean that there will be no economic punishment." Tao Ye, deputy director of the renewable energy development center of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said, "in terms of the difficulty of policy implementation or the simplicity of implementation, if the way of paying compensation is adopted, the supporting mechanism of the renewable energy development fund needs to be revised, which may cause that the policy cannot be launched on time."
for the quota system, the industry has been calling for a long time
"the sooner the quota system is introduced, the better." Qiu Zhanwei, chairman of Chint new energy, told China finance and other media, "now the use of clean energy in all regions is only based on awareness. After the implementation of the quota system, the use of clean energy is based on and obligation. This is of great significance to the promotion of clean energy, but also conducive to solving the consumption problem."
Cheng Cheng, vice president of sungrow power, told China finance and economics and other media on the eve of the forum that the implementation of the quota system has improved the "certainty" of the development of the industry. "After 531, everyone's sense of trust has become very poor, including practitioners and external financial institutions. They need confidence in the industry in order to continue to develop and operate. The quota system improves the certainty, which is very beneficial to the development of the industry." Cheng Cheng said
according to the notice, the quota completion of each region in 2018 will not be assessed. The quota indicators of 2018 issued with the notice are used for self verification of each region, and the quota indicators of 2020 are used to guide the development of renewable energy in each region. The quota assessment will be officially carried out from January 1, 2019, and the 2019 quota indicators will be released separately in the first quarter of 2019
taoye revealed that a series of allocation mechanisms of the quota system will be launched in the near future, including revising the voluntary green card trading mechanism, formulating the quota overfulfilled trading mechanism, guiding local governments to formulate quota implementation plans, etc., to ensure the effective implementation of the quota system next year
how to go "the only one kilometer behind the materials that do not fall in intensity" in parity
non technical costs become a "stumbling block"
with the declining intensity of subsidies, China's photovoltaic power generation is getting closer and closer to the subsidized parity. It is generally expected in the industry that the parity can be achieved in 2022, and now it is the "last kilometer" on the parity
in the "last mile" stage, Qiu Zhanwei said that in the next two to three years, the photovoltaic market will show the coexistence of non subsidized projects and subsidized projects. The government needs to create a good policy environment for non subsidized projects, such as giving priority in approval, giving preferential policies in financing, and so on
in the past 10 years, the price of photovoltaic modules has decreased by 94%, and the space for the reduction of the cost per watt of modules has gradually narrowed. In the above forum, the guests present unanimously called for the reduction of "non-technical costs" and "non construction costs", such as land prices, financing Jinan trial fund, cognition of the working principle of search engines (I) costs, taxes, electricity access costs, light abandonment and power restriction factors. Industry insiders estimate that non-technical costs have accounted for more than 20% of the total cost
Li Bin, chairman of the Three Gorges new energy Co., Ltd., said that the de subsidy and price reduction of renewable energy is the general trend, and it is also a consensus reached from the competent departments to the industry. However, now in many places, "non construction costs" have become one of the factors that hinder the decline of renewable energy costs. I hope governments at all levels can have a support in this regard
"non technical costs account for about 25% Cao Renxian said, "reducing non-technical costs requires the joint efforts of multiple departments."
"some countries and regions have achieved photovoltaic non subsidized electricity prices, and the bidding electricity prices are often 'no lowest, only lower', but many such projects use products produced by Chinese enterprises, and even EPC is done by Chinese enterprises." Hu Rongzhu, vice president of Tongwei group, told China finance and economics and other media, "in order to meet the performance requirements of scratch resistance, stickiness, stress whitening and shrinkage, what can we achieve unsubsidized electricity price by changing a place? One of the important factors is non-technical cost."